Negative contributions to the LEI were widespread among both financial and non-financial components The annual growth rate of the US LEI remained negative, continuing to signal weaking growth prospects The LAG is up 0.6 percent over the six-month period from November 2022 to April 2023, much slower than its growth rate of 3.3 percent over the previous six months. increased by 0.1 percent in May 2023 to 118.4 (2016 = 100), reversing a decline of 0.1 percent in April. The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. While recent data for industrial production have contributed negatively to coincident index, sales, employment, and income growth remained positive. The CEI’s component indicators-payroll employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing trade and sales, and industrial production-are included among the data used to determine recessions in the US. The CEI is now up 0.8 percent over the six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023-down slightly from the 0.9 percent growth it recorded over the previous six months. increased by 0.2 percent in May 2023 to 110.2 (2016=100), after rising by 0.3 percent in April. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. The recession likely will be due to continued tightness in monetary policy and lower government spending.” While we revised our Q2 GDP forecast from negative to slight growth, we project that the US economy will contract over the Q3 2023 to Q1 2024 period. Rising interest rates paired with persistent inflation will continue to further dampen economic activity. “The US Leading Index has declined in each of the last fourteen months and continues to point to weaker economic activity ahead. “The US LEI continued to fall in May as a result of deterioration in the gauges of consumer expectations for business conditions, ISM® New Orders Index, a negative yield spread, and worsening credit conditions,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. The LEI is down 4.3 percent over the six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023-a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months from May to November 2022. declined by 0.7 percent in May 2023 to 106.7 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.6 percent in April. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. The Coincident Economic Index provides an indication of the current state of the economy. The Leading Economic Index provides an early indication of significant turning points in the business cycle and where the economy is heading in the near term.
Declined Further in MayĪbout the Leading Economic Index and the Coincident Economic Index: The Conference Board publishes leading, coincident, and lagging indexes designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle for major economies around the world. Human Capital Benchmarking & Data Analytics.The 2023 IBI/Conference Board Health and Productivity Forum.
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